As its
20th anniversary year draws to a close, the Organic Trade Association
(OTA) has begun pondering what is in store for the organic industry
in the next 20 years. As a result, the OTA during 2005 conducted a
survey of industry research organizations and long time member companies
to envision what the organic industry might look like in the next
20 years. Here are some of the expectations, as revealed in the survey:
- The organic industry can be expected to grow and thrive at a sturdy
rate over the next 20 years, but at a slower pace than the current
20 percent average annual growth in sales.
- The average consumer household in 2025 will buy organic products
on a regular basis. These will include food items as well as organic
clothing, household cleaning products, and personal care items.
- Organic products by 2025 will be sold anywhere and everywhere. Increased
sales in restaurants are among the expected trends.
- Increases in organic sales and acceptance will result in increased
U.S. organic acreage.
- Younger shoppers will continue to be interested in organic foods,
particularly as Gen Xers pass down their belief systems. Ethnic shoppers,
Including Asian Americans and Hispanic Americans, will continue to
be more likely to buy organic products in proportion to their representation
in the general population.
- Government support of organic agriculture
will be crucial to maintain the industry’s growth potential.
The U.S. government will need to support farmers in their transition
to organic production, and to enforce the standards to minimize consumer
confusion.
Respondents believe the current growth rate of 15 - 20 percent annually
is not likely to continue. Instead, they predict the average annual
growth rate by 2025 will be closer to five to ten percent. However,
annual sales increases n the $2 billion range are seen as feasible.
If this occurs, U.S. organic food sales could reach $50 billion by
2025 representing nearly six percent of total U.S. food sales.
Asked when percentage of U.S. and world farmland would likely be certified
organic by the year 2025, respondents gave answers ranging from 8
to 15 percent, for a projected average of 12.6 percent of acres certified
organic, versus the less than one percent that today is certified.
Challenges
Among the challenges cited were consumer confusion about definitions
around the organic labels, unbalanced governmental support and promotion
of conventional farming methods at the expense of organic agriculture,
and the acceptance of value of organic packaged products versus perishable
in the marketplace.
Overall, however, survey participants indicated that all kinds of
organic products will be accepted and used as part of every day life
by the year 2025. Through both strong consumer and government support,
the organic industry will continue to thrive and grow in its innovative
and unique way.
